Matt Chapman's Free Agency Update

There is no doubt that Matt Chapman provides value that many other players can’t provide (both Offensively and Defensively) at Third Base. Chapman is only 30 years old and coming off a Gold Glove season at Third Base, as well as posting an almost 40 double, 108 ops+ Offensive distribution, while earning a Player Of The Month Award in April for hitting .384 AVG, 1.152 OPS, 15 2B, 5hr and 21RBI’s. Unfortunately for Chapman, injuries later in the season and poor play had him hitting just .215 with 12 home runs to end the season. His lowest point in the season was being pinch hit for Cavan Biggio in the 9th inning in a 1-run game in late September. The biggest flaw is the deteriorating power numbers slowly decreasing as the seasons go on, as Chapman has failed to reach a 30 home run and 90 RBI Season since 2019, which was his last all-star appearance to date. Although having consecutive 27 homers, and 70+ RBI seasons in 2021 and 2022, his batting average was in the low .200s, with an OPS+ barely above league average. Now in 2023 (his last season before free agency), he only accumulated 17 home runs while playing in 15 fewer games than in his previous season. With Chapman, his Defense is where he’s best valued, earning 4 Gold Gloves in his 7-year Career while having elite percentiles in all statistics at Third Base in every year of his career.

The Third Base market is the weakest Major League Baseball has seen in a very long time, with the only players left in the market at Third Base being Gio Urshela, Justin Turner and Donovan Solano. As of the publication of this Article, Chapman (the best player at his position by a large margin) has not signed with a team and overall hasn’t been reported much by insiders familiar with teams looking to sign him. Why is this? At his best, Matt Chapman is a 7 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) Player and his worst is a 4 (WAR) Player. The main reason is not a surprise to fans familiar with his agent Scott Boras, who is known to squeeze every last penny out of teams for his clients' talents. Boras is an agent, not many teams enjoy working with, but despite this, many believe Chapman could get a 6 year deal for more than $150 Million. Free agency is something that Matt Chapman has been planning for years now looking for a massive contract, as prior to this, he was acquired by the Toronto Blue Jays from the Oakland Athletics before the 2022 season, they inked Chapman to a 2yr 25 Million Dollar Contract to buy out his last 2 arbitration years. It seemed the Jays did this to decide what to do once his contract expired, the decision they made was to offer him a long-term contract. A report from TSN’s Scott Mitchell stated that Chapman passed on an offer of more than $100 Million over a 4-5 year contract in Spring Training of 2023. This brings us to the 2024 offseason. Which teams can best use him?

The best fit possible for Chapman is the San Francisco Giants. They have been one of the few teams who have had rumblings of contract talks for Matt, but his talents make perfect sense for the Giants. San Francisco has been known in the past few years for bringing out another side of hitters that we haven’t seen in years, as recently as 2021; we saw a resurgence of Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt and Buster Posey, all aging players who had seemed to run out of gas all put together MVP seasons to help them to 100+ wins in that season. Matt Chapman's hitting peripherals in the last 2 seasons show there is something there, as his Average Exit Velocity, Barrel Percentage and Hard Hit Percentage are some of the best in Baseball. This proves we may not have seen the best from Chapman offensively yet. On top of bringing out another side of Chapman offensively, the San Francisco Giants know him perhaps as well as any. The president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi was with the Oakland A’s for Chapman’s first two seasons in Oakland, new manager Bob Melvin for all five of his tenure. A place that is familiar to him and would embrace him. 

The second team would be the Chicago Cubs, who have shown interest in his talents since the offseason. The Cubs have been searching for Third Base help for a couple of seasons now, as Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom have yet to turn the corner for a team looking to win now. Now with Cody Bellinger still being a Free Agent, there are holes in their lineup that they would like to fill, and Chapman’s presence would give them a big boost on both ends of the Diamond. Most recently, Bob Nightengale (insider) predicted that the Cubs would be the most active team in the league for the last 5 weeks of the offseason. He also stated that Chapman would be one of the targets they would sign, this makes sense due to the Chicago Cubs only having recently signed Shota Imanaga, and aside from that not being able to sign another big name all offseason with not being able to land Shohei Ohtani and struggling to bring back Bellinger. So, this leaves Matt Chapman as an option to help them compete in the 2024 season.

The last team that could fit Matt Chapman would be a reunion with the Toronto Blue Jays, a team with a massive hole at Third Base. Even after the Jays signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa (a former Gold Glove winner at Third Base) he seems to be slated for a platoon role around the diamond; while also having players like Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio and Davis Schneider who can play multiple infield positions and don't have the track record of providing an impact bat. The Blue Jays have built their team around “run prevention” with players like Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermier both in the outfield coming off amazing defensive seasons. Chapman can still provide the Blue Jays with a big boost in his position and bring the leadership to Bo Bichette and Vladimir Gurerro Jr. which he has been doing since he was acquired.

Regardless of where Matt Chapman ends up, he will make any team that acquires him better, but with the price tag he might get, a bounce-back season offensively and the same defence is a must for any team willing to commit.